On paper, T-Mobile is in an ideal position to achieve dominance over its wireless industry rivals in the very near future as far as everything from cellular coverage to 5G speeds, and yes, even subscriber numbers are concerned. 

Dish giveth and Dish taketh away

Unfortunately, the FCC’s Keep Americans Connected Pledge was designed right off the bat to temporarily help T-Mo handle increased consumer demand during a delicate phase of the coronavirus pandemic. While COVID-19 rages on in the US, claiming around a thousand lives every day, Magenta could only use Dish’s 600 MHz spectrum for free by July 1.

Interestingly, T-Mobile didn’t pay up to extend its free lease contracts with several other spectrum hoarders owners, which seems to suggest the notoriously tough negotiating tactics of Dish chairman Charlie Ergen were not the only problem here.

A long mid-term partnership is inevitable

That’s because a longer-term lease was actually one of the conditions imposed by the DOJ to approve the T-Mobile/Sprint merger last year, and if Magenta and Dish can’t reach an understanding soon, the Department of Justice is expected to intervene. That may well happen in a matter of weeks, which probably explains why T-Mo was not quick to sign leases with other 600 MHz spectrum owners apart from Columbia Capital.

The “Un-carrier” might be expecting to see how much it will ultimately have to spend for Dish’s precious unused cellular technology. Lightshed analysts believe a 3-year lease worth no more than $400 million a year could be on the table, with Dish likely to request (and be granted) the option to reclaim any of its spectrum after 18 months.

Then again, the fact that both companies stand to gain so much from a prospective extended collaboration all but guarantees the negotiations are far from over.